2022 Crop Conditions Tour Reflects Dry Growing Season

Penn State Extension Agronomy Educators evaluated 88 corn and soybean fields across the commonwealth during the last week of August. We expect lower than normal corn yields in most locations due to drought this growing season, but soybeans could fare better.

Setting the stage

This spring, we experienced a rapid warm-up in March, followed by several weeks of more seasonable, cooler weather. April was slow to warm back up, and then significant rain delayed planting in many fields by about 2 weeks compared to normal. Once corn and soybeans were finally planted, very spotty showers throughout the summer frustrated many farmers.

Figure 1. Drought watch counties as of August 31, 2022, according to PA DEP, are highlighted in yellow; normal counties are highlighted in green.

As of August 31, 2022, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) Drought Task Force had declared a drought watch for 36 counties based on stream flow, groundwater level, precipitation, and soil moisture (Figure 1). You will see that crops in the drought-watch area have been the hardest hit in terms of yield, but many counties considered "normal" were still low on rainfall, and will still suffer some loss.

Corn Conditions and Outlook

Average relative maturity in the southeast region was 110 days; in the central region was 106 days; and in the western region was 103 days. Planting dates ranged from mid-April to early-June in the southeast. In the central region, almost all fields were planted mid-May. In the west, fields were mostly planted mid-May to early-June.

At the time of the tour, corn ranged from R3 (milk) to R6 (mature), with most in the R5 (dent) stage. Many educators reported smaller kernels; fewer viable ears in 1/1000^th of an acre, shorter ears, and more tip-dieback or aborted kernels than normal. Additionally, sampling locations in the same field were more variable than normal. It appears that drought impacts were worst after the critical pollination period at most locations, but drought during seed fill is not much better.

Foliar disease incidence was low this year, due mostly to the dry weather, but also timely fungicide applications. However, tar spot was confirmed in several new counties, including Berks, Chester, and Cumberland Counties. However, in most locations it was not severe, and did not appear to be the main yield limiting factor. Some corn smut was noted, specifically in droughty areas. Feeding by earworms was present in a handful of locations, allowing point of entry for ear molds, which were present at several sites.

The overall average tour-wide corn yield was 154 bushels per acre, down 23 bushels from the 2021 tour, but close to the 2020 estimate. Breaking the state into regions is more telling. You can see in Table 1 that the western region estimate is almost the same as last year, at 175 bushels per acre (range 148-211 bushels per acre). The central part of the state, however, suffered a 55-bushel (34%) reduction compared to last year’s estimate, dropping from 163 to 108 bushels per acre. Noting the low end of the range of our estimates, some producers may expect 50% yield reduction this year. The southeast also showed a 35-bushel (17%) reduction compared to last year’s estimate. These estimates approximately match the drought map, especially when soil type and water-holding capacity is taken into consideration.

Historically, our corn yield estimates have been slightly higher than USDA NASS annual report values, though our estimates reflect the same up-and-down trends shown by USDA NASS.

Table 1. Corn yield range and average estimates across regions of Pennsylvania

*Does not include one irrigated field, estimated at 238 bu./ac.

Soybeans:

Average maturity group in the southeast was 3.6, while the central and western region both averaged 2.9. Across sites, almost all planting dates were in mid-May, with a handful in the first week of June, and the last week of April.

At the time of the tour, almost all fields were at R6, or full seed. Some fields were starting to yellow, and a few fields were at R5, or beginning seed. Soybeans appeared to be in better condition in general than corn. Educators also noted more consistency within fields compared to corn.

Foliar diseases were present across the state, but usually at very low levels. Septoria brown spot and frogeye leaf spot were widespread, and soybean vein necrosis virus was noted in the central region. Soybean sudden death syndrome was noted in the southeast; pod rot was noted in the west; and assorted stem diseases were noted in the central region. Typical seasonal soybean pests, like grasshoppers, Japanese beetles, and stink bugs were present, but are rapidly declining from summer levels. Overall, soybeans looked to be in about average condition (Table 2).

Overall average number of pods per acre was slightly up, from 5.1 to 5.3 million pods per acre. Broken out by region, the west will hopefully enjoy higher soybean yields this year, with 5.2 million pods per acre, compared to 4.8 million last year (Table 2). However, educators noted fewer seeds per pod than normal at most locations, so expectations should be realistic. The central region saw a 500,000 pods per acre reduction from last year, with some fields in the region expecting 50% of normal yield. The southeast should yield close to last year, with similar estimated pods per acre.

Table 2. Average soybean pod estimates and condition assessments across Pennsylvania regions

Image caption: The southeast received more rain than other regions, but still had some dry areas, resulting in tip die-back and variability, illustrated by this Lancaster County field. Photo credit: Jeff Graybill, Penn State Extension.

Final thoughts:

Our yield estimates are not hopeful for large sections of the state, but the fact that some of the fields we toured have any crop to harvest at all is remarkable, considering the growing conditions. This is a testament to the incredible improvements in genetics in the last decade or so.

It can be valuable to check crop condition and estimate yield your own fields to reduce yield monitor shock, or quality surprises at the mill. Our team continues to use the yield component method for estimating corn yield on this tour, and we have found it reasonably accurate compared to harvest data. However, understand that no matter how well you randomly sample, replicate, and follow the protocol, these estimates are an educated guess—especially in a year like this year, where "variability" was one of the most common comments from educators on the tour.

As of September 6, most of the state experienced a series of fronts that brought inches of rain; this will be critical especially for double-crop beans, but many full-season beans and most corn is at the point where the rain only slow dry-down and impacts quality.

A hearty thanks to all the educators for their contributions to this year’s tour: Adriana Murillo-Williams, Andrew Frankenfield, Anna Hodgson, Delbert Voight, Dwane Miller, Jeff Graybill, Joey Akins, Justin Brackenrich, Leanna Duppstadt, and Sarah Frame.