Pennsylvania Timber Market Report, Fourth Quarter, 2021

October - December 2021 Stumpage Prices

$ per MBF International 1/4"

Northeast Price Ranges by Species

Southeast Price Ranges by Species

Northwest Price Ranges by Species

Southwest Price Ranges by Species

Conversion Factors
Doyle Price = 1.695 x International 1/4" Price
Scribner Price = 1.159 x International 1/4" Price
(n) is the number of responses used to calculate the price statistics.

Private and Other Public Pulpwood Stumpage

Hardwood Pulp ($/ton)

Softwood Pulp ($/ton)

^ No prices are reported for samples with only a single respondent.
* Ranges are not reported for samples with fewer than three respondents.

Bureau of Forestry Pulpwood Stumpage

Hardwood Pulp ($/ton)

Softwood Pulp ($/ton)

^ No prices are reported for samples with only a single respondent.
* Ranges are not reported for samples with fewer than three respondents.

Dr. Ray's Comments

The story for the 4th quarter was primarily the rise in key species in the eastern half of the state. Black cherry prices in the Northeast gained over 20%; in the Southeast, white oak, northern red oak, and black cherry all made similar strong moves. Most other species in the rest of the state stayed relatively stable near the strong prices recorded earlier in 2021.

At least part of the continuing strength in the stumpage market can be attributed to inflation of raw materials, in general, in the country. If you compare the first point on each of the graphs with the last you'll see that with the exception of White Ash, which appears to be on its way out as a major commercial species in Pennsylvania, all species are at least 10% higher in the 4th quarter 2021 than they were in 4th quarter 2020. Assume that 10% to be the inflation factor...any price increase over 10% can be interpreted as a real increase in demand for that species.

Looking at the market that way, we see real demand increases for the top four species in the entire Northern region, while in the Southern region, only White Oak seems to be in truly higher demand.

However, fourth and first quarter prices are traditionally softer than second and third quarter prices, as we see once again demonstrated on the 2021 charts. Next quarter's data should be a real indicator of what 2022 prices will do. If they maintain current price levels, then 2022 should be stronger yet than 2021. But if we see a significant to sharp drop in prices, then the market in general could be on its way to a setback. Housing demand is still strong, with long order files for home builders and component manufacturers, so we shouldn't see that drop in stumpage anytime soon.