Pennsylvania Timber Market Report, First Quarter, 2022

January - March 2022 Stumpage Prices

$ per MBF International 1/4"

Northeast Price Ranges by Species

Southeast Price Ranges by Species

Northwest Price Ranges by Species

Southwest Price Ranges by Species

Conversion Factors
Doyle Price = 1.695 x International 1/4" Price
Scribner Price = 1.159 x International 1/4" Price
(n) is the number of responses used to calculate the price statistics.

Private and Other Public Pulpwood Stumpage

Hardwood Pulp ($/ton)

Softwood Pulp ($/ton)

^ No prices are reported for samples with only a single respondent.
* Ranges are not reported for samples with fewer than three respondents.

Bureau of Forestry Pulpwood Stumpage

Hardwood Pulp ($/ton)

Softwood Pulp ($/ton)

^ No prices are reported for samples with only a single respondent.
* Ranges are not reported for samples with fewer than three respondents.

Dr. Ray's Comments

I said last quarter...

"Next quarter's data should be a real indicator of what 2022 prices will do. If they maintain current price levels, then 2022 should be stronger yet than 2021. But if we see a significant to sharp drop in prices, then the market in general could be on its way to a setback."

I was wrong on the first sentence...we'll have to wait until next quarter to see what the markets are really doing.

Why?

Well, for one thing, the number of timber sales reported this quarter was only half the number of sales reported in the fourth quarter of 2021, and only 3/4 the number of sales in the first quarter of 2021. Secondly, only about half the number of private timberland contributors reported in this quarter. And finally, roughly half the sales reported seem to have been of low-grade stands. Normally only about 20% or less of the stands reported are low-grade. Taken all together, our price data and graphs this month may not be representative of the market in general.

Or it may.

That is, the low number of sales reported may actually be a true representation of a slowdown in the timber market. Several of the survey respondents reporter "no sales" or a single sale with small volume of timber. However, the PA Bureau of Forestry reported just about the same number of sales as the first quarter of 2021. So, it could be a slowdown on private lands and business as usual on public lands.

As for pricing, White Oak seems to be continuing to increase its strong upward movement across the state. Whereas, Black Cherry seems to be on a price pullback in the Northern regions where it is normally the strongest. All other species seem to be maintaining their strong prices.

So, our survey may be telling us that prices look to be holding for a strong market in 2022 because prices stayed strong in a slow quarter. Or, it may be hinting at a slowdown in demand that will result in a softening in prices over the coming months.

Stayed tuned.