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Pennsylvania Timber Market Report, Third Quarter, 2022

Stumpage prices as reported by Pennsylvania timber and logging companies, forestry consultants, and state land management agencies to analysts at the Pennsylvania State University.

Updated:

November 29, 2022

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Pennsylvania Timber Market Report, Third Quarter, 2022

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July - September 2022 Stumpage Prices

$ per MBF International 1/4"

Northeast Price Ranges by Species

Species by Region	Minus 1 Std Dev	Average	Plus 1 Std Dev	N#
Northern Red Oak	$382	$503	$624	7
White Oak	$338	$456	$574	7
Mixed Oak	$250	$367	$484	7
Black Cherry	$248	$440	$632	7
White Ash	$0	$259	$0	1
Hard Maple	$144	$304	$464	5
Soft Maple	$222	$305	$389	8
Yellow-Poplar	$0	$179	$0	1
Misc. Hardwoods	$90	$113	$135	7
White Pine	$31	$70	$109	3
Hemlock	$0	$73	$0	1

Southeast Price Ranges by Species

Species by Region	Minus 1 Std Dev	Average	Plus 1 Std Dev	N#
Northern Red Oak	$399	$596	$792	12
White Oak	$551	$732	$914	7
Mixed Oak	$283	$438	$593	13
Black Cherry	$259	$262	$266	2
White Ash	$0	$221	$0	1
Hard Maple	$0	$652	$0	1
Soft Maple	$157	$262	$367	7
Yellow-poplar	$308	$443	$578	7
Misc. Hardwoods	$180	$245	$311	7
White Pine	$44	$99	$153	2
Hemlock	$0	$53	$0	1

Northwest Price Ranges by Species

Species by Region	Minus 1 Std Dev	Average	Plus 1 Std Dev	N#
Northern Red Oak	$284	$410	$535	16
White Oak	$423	$565	$708	14
Mixed Oak	$185	$277	$369	12
Black Cherry	$263	$534	$804	19
White Ash	$44	$144	$243	7
Hard Maple	$304	$442	$580	18
Soft Maple	$292	$356	$420	20
Yellow-poplar	$19	$131	$242	8
Misc. Hardwoods	$42	$92	$143	19
White Pine	$7	$32	$56	4
Hemlock	$0	$6	$18	6

Southwest Price Ranges by Species

Species by Region	Minus 1 Std Dev	Average	Plus 1 Std Dev	N#
Northern Red Oak	$134	$360	$587	8
White Oak	$210	$508	$806	8
Mixed Oak	$146	$285	$425	8
Black Cherry	$80	$202	$324	6
White Ash	$68	$129	$190	2
Hard Maple	$168	$327	$485	5
Soft Maple	$152	$257	$362	7
Yellow-poplar	$130	$294	$458	6
Misc. Hardwoods	$73	$144	$215	7
White Pine	$81	$119	$156	4
Hemlock	$77	$99	$121	3

Conversion Factors
Doyle Price = 1.695 x International 1/4" Price
Scribner Price = 1.159 x International 1/4" Price
(n) is the number of responses used to calculate the price statistics.

Private and Other Public Pulpwood Stumpage

Hardwood Pulp ($/ton)

Region	Low	Avg	High	(n)#
Northeast	*	$2.00	*	2
Southeast	*	$1.00	*	2
Northwest	$0.00	$0.69	$3.00	13
Southwest	$1.00	$2.67	$4.00	3

Softwood Pulp ($/ton)

Region	Low	Avg	High	(n)#
Northeast				0
Southeast				0
Northwest	$0.00	$0.20	$1.00	5
Northwest	^	^	^	1

^ No prices are reported for samples with only a single respondent.
* Ranges are not reported for samples with fewer than three respondents.

Bureau of Forestry Pulpwood Stumpage

Hardwood Pulp ($/ton)

Region	Low	Avg	High	(n)#
Northeast	$2.41	$5.29	$9.31	6
Southeast	$2.76	$4.63	$8.97	7
Northwest	$2.41	$6.15	$12.76	6
Southwest	^	^	^	1

Softwood Pulp ($/ton)

Region	Low	Avg	High	(n)#
Northeast	^	^	^	1
Southeast	^	^	^	1
Northwest				0
Southwest				0

^ No prices are reported for samples with only a single respondent.
* Ranges are not reported for samples with fewer than three respondents.

Dr. Ray's Comments

Pennsylvania hardwood stumpage prices are hanging in there at pretty strong levels, despite a slight softening hinted at in the graphs and tables above. Why do I say that? Well, compare the price trendlines from March to September above with the price of softwood lumber futures in the graph below.

Source: Lumber PRICE Today | Lumber Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Lumber per Ounce | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

While our stumpage values in that period have generally dropped about 25%, on average, softwood lumber futures have dropped over $1000 per mbf, from just over $1,400/mbf to just over $400/mbf. That's a drop of about 70% in the same time frame.

Hardwood prices are always a little less volatile that softwood prices, and especially on the speculation on commodity softwood. And stumpage prices are always less volatile than lumber prices, which are more closely related to short-term economic pressures. So it makes sense that our Pennsylvania stumpage remains relatively healthy, price-wise, while other wood products take a beating. Quality will always demand a premium, and Pennsylvania hardwoods are about the best woods available anywhere.

Still, the slow pace of the economy in general has provided a negative pull on our stumpage markets, even in the face of inflationary pressures on costs of harvesting and processing. And as we leave 2022 and head into 2023, we should see the softwood lumber futures rebound in the spring as they generally do, and our stumpage prices will probably firm up again as they normally do.

I'll do a multi-year trend analysis by the end of this year to illustrate why I think our stumpage markets are still relatively healthy. Until then, take care...